Although the import and export data in May was unexpectedly optimistic, China's foreign trade enterprises are still full of worries about the high cost.

The rising labor costs, the rising real exchange rate of RMB, and the rising prices of bulk commodities have all put pressure on the profit margins of enterprises. At the same time, the transformation of the growth mode of foreign trade is also facing the thrust of passive adjustment. Experts said that we should change passive adjustment into active adjustment, and realize the "de-cheapening" and structural upgrading of foreign trade in a gradual process.

"The rise in labor costs is inevitable for the development of China's economy," said Jinbin, a professor at Renmin University of China's School of Economics. The reform of China's social security system lags behind, and the income distribution in China's economy is not balanced.
There are significant deficiencies in the distribution system, and the proportion of factor income in the primary distribution has been declining over the past decade. In addition, foreign-funded enterprises have long been undercompensating vulnerable labor groups for their labor. Therefore, labor wages
The rapid rise of the market can be seen as a self-correction of the market with obvious deficiencies in the three factors mentioned above.

"A salary increase is a good thing for China's economy, as it can achieve the ultimate goal of everyone sharing the fruits of economic growth; but on the other hand, under the current economic situation, it undoubtedly increases the cost of foreign trade enterprises, and has a short-term impact on exports and growth," said Jin Bin.

In addition to labor costs, the investment costs of land, water and other resources and energy are also increasing. "The prices of crude oil, iron ore and other bulk products in the market have entered the recovery channel. As of March this year, the import price level of primary products in China has shown double-digit increases for four consecutive months, and the increase has been rising month by month," said Bai Shuqiang, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics.

In addition, China is currently facing the pressure of RMB appreciation. Sun Huayu, director of the China Research Center for Renminbi and International Economics and professor of the University of International Business and Economics, said that according to the real effective exchange rate announced by the Bank of China on June 15,
From January to May 2010, the overall depreciation of the euro zone was 7.84%, the appreciation of the US dollar was 2.62%, and the appreciation of the RMB was 5.49%. This means that although the bilateral nominal exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar remained unchanged, the RMB
The real effective appreciation of the RMB against the euro is close to 13.33%, and the real effective appreciation against the US dollar is close to 2.87%. The substantial real appreciation of the RMB against the euro will slow down the recovery of China's exports to the European market.
The long-term increase in imports will also intensify the competitive pressure of Chinese products in the non-eurozone market against products from the eurozone.

According to expert analysis, high costs will put pressure on the profit margins of foreign trade enterprises. This is because
The price of China's export commodities is determined by the market, and it is difficult for manufacturers to transfer the increased costs. China's foreign trade may bid farewell to the "cheap era". In this process, enterprises with insufficient strength may be eliminated, and the structure of foreign trade
Faced with the push of passive adjustment, the long-standing growth model of China's manufacturing industry, which relies on low wages, high consumption, and high emissions, will be difficult to sustain.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that with the development of China's economy, the cost of labor, land and other factors will inevitably rise. This is an inevitable trend and cannot be artificially blocked. It is difficult for enterprises to continue the strategy of the past era of cheap labor. Therefore, the government, enterprises and society should form a consensus that the original low-cost labor-based model must be reformed.

Jin Bin also said that since the mid-1990s, the manufacturing surplus has accounted for more than 90% of the trade surplus. In foreign trade, China's economy has chosen the path of employment rather than profit. Today, it is indeed true that there are drawbacks such as deteriorating trade conditions and excessive consumption of resources that need to be corrected.

"But it should be a gradual process, and policies cannot be overcorrected." Jin Bin reminded, "This is an opportunity for China's foreign trade structure upgrade, but the triggering factor is passive. We should change passive adjustment to active adjustment,
The requirement of 'de-cheapening' cannot come too suddenly, otherwise the formulated policies will have an excessive impact: either the policies cannot bear the cost, or they will have significant negative effects on employment.

Bai Shuqiang also expressed
According to the report, China's trade structure, which is dominated by "foreign-invested enterprises + processing trade", will still generate trade surplus in a certain period of time. However, with China's focus on "expanding markets, adjusting structure, and promoting balance" in the field of foreign trade, trade surplus will gradually decline.
The scale of surplus will continue to decrease, and the development of foreign trade tends to be basically balanced. China's export enterprises should make early response, seize the fundamental direction of the transformation of trade growth mode, realize the upgrading of foreign trade structure as soon as possible, and enhance the innovation ability of enterprises.
Strength and competitiveness.

Sun Huayu pointed out that both the rising cost and the appreciation of the RMB will reduce the profits of export enterprises. When realizing that the original products and markets will be unprofitable for a long time, enterprises will develop new products and markets. During this process, some enterprises will fall, but those that survive must have achieved upgrading and replacement.